towards the United States and his warm embrace of China.
For months,
Washington has played down Duterte's anti-American insults and broadsides. But
the flamboyant new leader raised the stakes to a new level on Thursday when he
announced his "separation" from long-time ally the United States and
realignment with Beijing and possibly even Moscow, America's two main strategic
rivals.
Duterte's
latest outburst, less than three weeks before the U.S. presidential election,
casts further doubt on the seven-decade U.S.-Philippine alliance and threatens
to further undermine President Barack Obama's faltering "pivot" to
Asia as a counterbalance to China's growing assertiveness.
Potentially at
stake is the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, reached under Duterte's
predecessor, allowing the United States to rotate ships, aircraft, and
personnel through five Philippines bases, an arrangement seen as crucial to
projecting U.S. military power on China's doorstep.
Mindful of
Duterte's volatile nature, the Obama administration has trod carefully so far,
seeking to avoid provoking him even as it chides him over his deadly war on
drugs, U.S. officials say.
One U.S.
official, who did not want to be identified, said there had been an active
internal debate in recent months on how far to go in criticizing Duterte's
government on human rights and that the measured tone adopted was not as strong
as some aides would have liked.
U.S. attempts
to raise questions about Duterte's campaign against drugs, in which more than
3,000 people have been killed since he took office in June, have drawn angry
denunciations by Duterte. He has derided Obama as a "a son of bitch"
and said he should "go to hell."
"It
doesn't seem to help to say anything because the minute you say something, he
just lets loose his barrage of obscenities," said Murray Hiebert, deputy
director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies. "I think for the U.S. to just blast him constantly
is probably not very effective."
There is a
suspicion in Washington that Duterte could swing back to the United States - if
he decides it suits his interests.
"There is
no question that Duterte is...trying to play the well-worn game of playing us
off against the Chinese," another U.S. official said, on condition of
anonymity.
State
Department spokesman John Kirby said on Thursday that the United States will
seek an explanation from Duterte over his "separation" announcement,
which he made during a visit to China. But he limited criticism to calling the
remarks "baffling" and "inexplicably at odds" with close
ties between Washington and Manila.
CONCERN ABOUT
DUTERTE'S UNPREDICTABILITY
U.S. officials
are concerned about Duterte's unpredictability, but say that despite his words
the Philippines has not yet canceled military exercises or formally requested
any tangible change in the security relationship.
With relations
souring further, the senior U.S. diplomat for Asia, Assistant Secretary of
State Daniel Russel, was due to visit Manila this weekend on what the State
Department said was a previously scheduled trip. He would seek to clarify
Duterte's comments, the State Department said.
If it chose to
respond more vigorously to human rights concerns, the United States could
decide to cut military aid to the Philippines, or make it contingent upon an
end to the drug killings or more careful judicial procedures.
But Philippine
officials have suggested their country could live without the U.S. assistance,
and overtures to China and Russia suggest they might seek assistance elsewhere.
Duterte's
trade secretary, Ramon Lopez, said $13.5 billion in deals would be signed
during Duterte's China trip, though it was unclear how much of that amount was
in the form of final deals rather than preliminary agreements. The White House
said current U.S. direct investment to the Philippines is over $4.7 billion.
Members of the
U.S. Congress, including Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy, a strong voice on
foreign policy issues, have indicated they will consider conditions on U.S. aid
to the Philippines if the killings continue apace.
Washington has
provided the Philippines with millions of dollars in extra military aid in the
last two years as part of an effort to bolster allies to counter China's
pursuit of expansive territorial claims in the South China Sea.
Kurt Campbell,
a former assistant secretary of state for East Asia under Obama who may have an
administration role should Hillary Clinton win the U.S. election, has been
among those urging a tougher line on the human rights issue.
"What's
happening in the Philippines is starting to raise larger questions and
concern," he said.
"This
idea, that 'No, no, we'll ignore this and maintain quietly our military and
strategic operational activities,' (I) think is going to be difficult."
Reuters
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