Reuters - The race for
the Oval Office tightened significantly in the past week, as several swing
states that Republican Donald Trump must win shifted from favoring Democrat
Hillary Clinton to toss-ups, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the
Nation project.
The two
presidential candidates are now tied in Florida and North Carolina, and
Clinton’s lead in Michigan has narrowed so much that the state is too close to
call. Ohio remains a dead heat and Pennsylvania is
now tilting to Clinton.
While Clinton
remains the odds-on favorite to win Tuesday's election, Trump now has a
plausible route to victory, especially if there is a sharp fall in turnout
among African-Americans from the levels of the 2012 election.
Still, Trump
must win both Florida and North Carolina to have a good chance of winning the
White House. Clinton could lose both states and still win.
The States of
the Nation project estimates Clinton’s odds of winning the needed 270 Electoral
College votes at about 90 percent, down from 95 percent last week. If the
election had been held on Wednesday, the project estimates, she would have had
256 solid electoral votes and an estimated final tally of about 302 votes, to
236 for Trump. Last week, she had 278 solid votes and a final tally of 320
votes, to 218 for Trump.
By any
measure, however, Trump has had a good run in the past week. He has seen his
support grow in 24 states while losing ground in 11. Conversely, Clinton’s
support grew in 13 states while shrinking in 22.
Trump’s gains
came in a period in which he had few new controversies to fend off, while
Clinton faced renewed scrutiny of her email practices.
Most
respondents to the latest survey were asked about their support for the
candidates after FBI Director James Comey announced last Friday the agency was
examining newly discovered emails that might pertain to Clinton's use of a
private email server while she was secretary of state.
Comey had
concluded in July at the end of a year-long FBI probe of the email issue that
there were no grounds to bring any charges against Clinton. His brief letter to
Congress last week said the new trove of emails might or might not be
significant.
Trump and
other Republicans seized on the news to question Clinton's credibility, while
Democrats complained it could unfairly influence voters so close to the
election.
The States of
the Nation project is a survey of about 15,000 people every week in all 50
states plus Washington, D.C. State by state results are available by visiting
here
EARLY VOTING
INDICATORS
It is unclear
if the FBI inquiry upset the balance in the race. But many national polls have
found the race tightening in recent days. Polling averages last week showed
Clinton with a lead of between 4 and 7 points. Those averages now show her lead
at just 2 to 3 points. Last week, the project had her leading 47 percent to 40
percent. This week, it dropped to 45 percent to 42 percent.
In the
Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll from Oct. 28 to Nov. 1, Clinton led Trump by
6 percentage points among likely voters, the same margin as before the FBI
announcement.
There are
other reasons for the Clinton campaign to worry. Among voters who have cast
early ballots, she leads Trump by about 8 points. At the same point in the 2012
race, President Barack Obama had a lead of 11 points among early voters over
Republican rival Mitt Romney. Obama’s gap narrowed, however, to 6 points just
before Election Day, according to the States of the Nation project and separate
Reuters/Ipsos polling.
In Florida,
where the candidates are tied at 47 percent, Clinton leads by 8 points among
early voters. In 2012, Obama led by about 15 points.
In Ohio, where
the race also is tied, she leads by about 20 points among early voters. At this
point in 2012, Obama led by about 30 points.
It is not
clear why Clinton’s early voting support has fallen short of Obama’s. The shift
could indicate a broader cross-section of voters is casting early ballots than
in 2012. But the drop might also foreshadow lower-than-expected turnout among
the core Democratic constituencies who propelled Obama to victory in 2008 and
2012.
Clinton’s
success is built on holding together those blocs of voters. She does not, for
example, enjoy the same support among African-Americans as Obama, the first
black U.S. president. Diminished support among blacks, coupled with a large
drop in black turnout, would hurt the Democrat.
If black
Democratic turnout drops by 15 points nationally, for example, Clinton’s odds
of winning drop to about 72 percent, by a projected margin of just 32 Electoral
College votes. A drop of 20 points would reduce the odds of a Clinton victory
to little more than a coin toss, according to the project.
Even a
10-point drop in black Democratic turnout coupled with a 5-point increase among
white Republicans would flip the race to Trump, the project found.
The good news
for Clinton is that about 60 percent of likely Hispanic voters are supporting
her, similar to the numbers Obama enjoyed in 2012. A 10-point increase in
Hispanic turnout would go a long way toward offsetting a 10-point decrease in
black turnout, according to the project.
The outlook is
not all gloom for Clinton. She has made the race close in Arizona, a longtime
Republican stronghold. She has also regained the lead in Pennsylvania and is
leading in Nevada.
Reuters
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