REUTERS-Early
optimism among business lobbyists and executives that Donald
Trump's election
heralded better days has slowly given way to uncertainty as the president-elect
fires off mixed and sometimes confusing messages on healthcare, taxes and
trade.
An initial
euphoria in the business world fueled a powerful post-election stock rally.
Some of that has frayed as questions arise over the nuts and bolts of Trump's
campaign promises, although many in the business community said they remain
optimistic.
Doubts
deepened over the weekend as Trump declared he would replace President Barack
Obama's signature healthcare plan known as Obamacare with "insurance for
everybody" - a goal far beyond Republican designs - and criticized a key
component of a plan in Congress to overhaul corporate taxes.
"It is
fair to say that since the election, there has been mounting uncertainty about
exactly what the specific policies are likely to be with regard to tax reform
and replacing Obamacare," a financial industry official said.
Expectations
for faster growth, tax reform and a quick repeal of Obamacare, officially known
as the Affordable Care Act, have "given way to 'We are not really sure
what he means by that'," the official said.
A veteran
Republican financial lobbyist said she is under constant pressure from clients
to predict what the new administration is planning, but she has no reliable
answers for them.
WRENCH IN
OBAMACARE REPEAL
Trump
appears to have thrown a wrench into Republican plans to repeal Obamacare with
mixed signals on the details and timing of a replacement plan.
Congressional
Republicans have focused on limiting government involvement in the healthcare
system and eliminating the law's individual mandate that forces people to have
insurance.
But Trump
told the Washington Post he was almost done with a plan to replace Obamacare
with "insurance for everybody" while forcing drug companies to
negotiate directly with the government on prices for Medicare and Medicaid.
Trump's
recent attack on the border adjustment tax was another sign of his
unpredictability, the veteran financial lobbyist said.
That measure
would tax imports and exempt exports in an effort to encourage companies to
keep jobs and production in the United States. But in an interview with the
Wall Street Journal on Friday, Trump called the proposal "too
complicated."
"Anytime
I hear border adjustment, I don't love it," Trump told the Journal.
"Because usually it means we're going to get adjusted into a bad deal.
That’s what happens."
Chris
Krueger, an analyst at the investment firm Cowen and Co, said Trump's comments
to the newspaper about the border adjustment proposal were
"breathtaking."
"Trump
is like a policy bull who seems to bring his own china shop with him to destroy
it with every interview," Krueger wrote in a research note.
Lobbyists
said the Trump transition team's lack of interest in their input was clear in
the last two weeks as it summoned trade groups to daily "listening
sessions" at the American Enterprise Institute think tank. The
agriculture, financial, transportation and tech industries are among the
sectors that got a one-hour session, according to participants.
"GOAT
RODEO"
In the
sessions, Wall Street lobbyists were encouraged to talk fast: a giant
television screen overhead counted down two minutes of allotted time.
"It was
a goat rodeo. We all got a couple minutes to speak. What can you really say in
that time?" said another financial services lobbyist. "They wanted to
check the box - 'We’re listening to Wall Street'. But who even knows where
these transition people will be in a few days?"
Lobbyists
also have been alarmed that the transition team has not included them in
preparations for confirmation hearings for many nominated Cabinet officials,
including potential Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin.
"If you
want someone to explain how Elizabeth Warren can hammer you 12 different ways,
ask a lobbyist," said the financial services lobbyist, referring to the
Massachusetts senator who is a frequent critic of Wall Street.
Even Trump's
website sowed confusion about his intentions. A promise to dismantle the
Dodd-Frank regulatory reforms was removed at the end of last year and has not
been replaced. A Trump spokesperson blamed a redesign, but bank lobbyists are
not so sure - other content made it through the redesign.
Some
companies have been reassured by Trump’s Cabinet nominees, who are seen as more
predictable and supportive of the business establishment than the impulsive
president-elect.
Senator Jeff
Sessions, Trump’s pick for attorney general, has deep differences on values
with the technology sector, but is seen as an important Trump counterweight
because he is a “deliberate decision-maker not prone to big dramatic mood
swings,” a source at one major Silicon Valley firm said.
Many lobbyists
and business officials said they remain optimistic and cautioned against
reading too deeply into tweets or comments that Trump makes on policy.
“If Obama or
Bush opined on a policy ... most of Washington assumed that raising that
question was a well-vetted intentional decision to send a signal,” a senior
U.S. Chamber of Commerce official said.
Trump, by
contrast, may simply be raising policy issues because he has questions on them,
the chamber official said.
The same
financial industry official who acknowledged the uncertain climate also said he
remains optimistic.
"There
were a lot of candidates who were interviewed. There were names floated out
there and ... it was kind of a chaotic process," the official said,
referring to the process of picking candidates to fill Cabinet and other
administration positions. “But overall, I think one can make the observation
that in making the final selections, Trump has shown ... a very surprising
even-handedness."
REUTERS
0 Comments