When U.S.
President Donald Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, their
summit will be marked not only by deep policy divisions but a clash of
personalities between America’s brash “tweeter-in-chief” and Beijing’s
cautious, calculating leader.
They may have
one thing in common: their rhetoric about restoring their nations to greatness.
But the two men differ in almost every other respect, from their political
styles to their diplomatic experience, adding uncertainty to what has been
called the world’s most important bilateral relationship.
Five months
after his election on a stridently anti-China platform, Trump appears to have
set himself on a course for collision rather than conciliation with Xi, raising
doubts as to whether the world's two biggest economies can find common ground.
Topping the
agenda at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida will be whether he will make
good on his threat to use crucial U.S.-China trade ties to pressure Beijing to
do more to rein in its nuclear-armed neighbor North Korea, which is working to
develop missiles capable of hitting the United States.
Trump, a
70-year-old former real estate magnate with no foreign policy experience before
entering the White House, has tweeted that it will be a "very difficult”
meeting with the veteran Communist Party leader seven years his junior, given
Chinese trade practices he says are killing U.S. jobs.
He has also
demanded that Beijing do more to “solve” the North Korean problem – his biggest
national security challenge - or he will act alone to deal with Pyongyang’s
nuclear and missile programs.
Some White
House aides believe Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner could
be an influential moderating voice on how he handles Xi in their talks on
Thursday and Friday. Contacts between Kushner and China’s U.S. envoy helped
smooth the way for the meeting, according to current and former U.S. officials.
Even so, what
worries the protocol-conscious Chinese more than policy clashes is the risk
that the unpredictable Trump could publicly embarrass Xi, after several foreign
leaders experienced awkward moments with the new U.S. president.
"Ensuring
President Xi does not lose face is a top priority for China,” a Chinese
official said.
U.S.
presidents’ meetings with their Chinese counterparts are usually more tightly
scripted than with other foreign leaders, something Chinese officials insist on
to make sure they are treated with the decorum they believe befits a global
power.
This summit
should offer a study in contrasts: Trump impatient, outspoken and prone to
angry tweet-storms; Xi, outwardly calm and measured, with no known social media
presence.
Their shared
nationalist tendencies could aggravate friction between their countries, which
are increasingly global rivals.
Trump insists
the United States has been cheated economically for decades by countries like
China and must regain its luster, while Xi wants China, once an ancient empire,
to be able to flex its muscles on the world stage.
“Xi and Trump
are not natural friends,” said a former senior U.S. official specializing in
Asia. "The question is when Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ hits Xi’s
‘Chinese Dream’, what’s the result?”
WON’T PULL
PUNCHES
It remains
unclear how far Trump will go in translating populist rhetoric into policy that
steps up pressure on China, given the risk of a trade war neither country can
afford.
But aides say
he won't pull his punches, especially on trade, on which he has held an
outspoken view for decades.
This adds to
doubts as to whether the two leaders can find common ground on North Korea and
China's expansive claims in the South China Sea.
Some analysts
question whether Trump can get the better of Xi, who was born into a life of
politics and has a reputation for being a tough tactician.
"Xi’s
performed pretty well in these types of environments," said Christopher
Johnson, a China expert and former CIA analyst at Washington's Center for
Strategic and International Studies.
While Trump
has been in office little more than 10 weeks, Xi has honed his U.S. strategy
since assuming the Chinese leadership in 2013.
The son of a
revolutionary leader, Xi has sought to project the image internationally of a
strong advocate of globalization at a time when Trump has stoked fears of U.S.
protectionism.
Still, Chinese
officials are mindful of the pitfalls if Trump veers off-script.
Japanese Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe found himself in a long, uncomfortable handshake at the
White House in February, and Trump appeared to ignore German Chancellor Angela
Merkel’s offer of a handshake during their meeting last month.
An acrimonious
call between Trump and Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull caused
particular concern in Beijing, officials there say.
Still, the
decision to hold a summit so early in Trump’s presidency suggests both
Washington and Beijing see the value of trying to build a personal relationship
between the two leaders.
Trump goes
into the meeting with significant gaps in his team of Asia advisers and his
China policy still not fully formulated.
Hardliners
like trade adviser Peter Navarro, who authored a book “Death by China,” have
feuded over the administration's approach to China with more pragmatic aides
such as economic adviser Gary Cohn, a former Goldman Sachs president, current
and former U.S. officials say.
Administration
officials argue Trump can use his “Art of the Deal” sales techniques to
convince Xi that China needs the United States more than the United States
needs China, especially when it comes to market access.
But analysts
say the Chinese are shrewd enough at geopolitics to fend off U.S. demands. Xi
may also see Trump politically weakened by his high-profile legislative failure
on healthcare as well as his low public approval ratings.
Trump has
already backed down on China's most sensitive issue - Taiwan - having first
infuriated Beijing by suggesting he might not abide by Washington’s
long-standing “one China” policy. Trump may now feel he is owed a favor in
return.
A
fence-mending phone call in February was arranged by Kushner and China’s U.S.
ambassador, Cui Tiankai, officials say, after Cui invited Trump’s daughter
Ivanka to the Chinese Embassy's Lunar New Year reception, where her daughter
sang in Mandarin.
Both sides are
keeping expectations low for tangible outcomes from the summit, billed as
informal "get to know you" meetings similar to the 2013 Sunnylands
summit in California between Xi and Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama.
And whatever
else, unlike Abe's February visit to Mar-a-Lago, there will be no golf
diplomacy: China’s Communist Party associates golf with shady dealings and has
sought to stop officials from playing it as part of Xi's fight against
corruption.
REUTERS
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