According to
the business unit arm of the United Kingdom-based Economist Group which
provides advisory services through research and analysis, Nigeria faces the
biggest challenges to its constitutional democracy since the return to civilian
rule in 1999.
It noted
that risks in the early part of the 2017-2021 prediction are heightened by a
likely transfer of power before the electoral cycle at the presidency.
With the
President having spent much of the first half of this year in the UK receiving
treatment for an undisclosed ailment, the EIU said: “We view it likely that Mr.
Buhari will be forced to leave office before the official end of his term in
2019. He will be replaced by his deputy, Yemi Osinbajo, to serve the remainder
of the term as stipulated in the constitution.”
Indeed, the
outlook, contrary to some expectations by government, noted that policy reform
will be slow as efforts to introduce market-oriented reforms and diversify the
economy away from oil come up against vested interests, ideological opposition
and bureaucratic inefficiency. It added that real GDP growth would ebb to
recover from the recession of 2016, given an ongoing period of historically low
oil prices and the weak policy response which will sap confidence in the
economy more generally.
Similarly,
the EIU projected that the average yearly inflation will rise further to 17 per
cent this year owing to currency falls coupled with generally higher commodity
prices, adding that greater currency stability will see inflation edge down,
although not rapidly in 2018.
Reacting to
the report, an economist and investment banker, Bayo Rotimi, said: “I
understand the anxiety around the political situation, movement in oil prices.
These are things that we are aware of. If there are problems in those areas,
then the nation’s economy may be adversely affected.”
According to Guardian report, Rotimi, who
is also the Chief Executive Officer of Quest Advisory Services Limited,
continued: “The EIU tends to be pessimistic. I do not agree with their position
on the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP). As always, everything is a
function of implementation.”
For the
Director-General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Muda
Yusuf, he acknowledged the concerns but noted that government efforts in the
areas of policy initiation and implementation had reflected genuine commitment
to growth and development.
To the
Director-General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Segun
Kadiri, a lot has been done by the government in initiating policies that would
turn the country around.
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