HAVANA – Colombia's government and the country's
biggest rebel group reached a deal Wednesday evening for ending a half-century
of hostilities in what has been one of the world's longest-running armed
conflicts.
The
government's accord with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia must still
be ratified by voters in a plebiscite in order to take effect.
But the
announcement in Havana of a deal after four years of talks opens the
possibility for Colombians to put behind them political bloodshed that has
claimed more than 220,000 lives and driven more than 5 million people from
their homes.
The accord,
whose final text has yet to be published, commits Colombia's government to
carrying out aggressive land reform, overhauling its anti-narcotics strategy
and greatly expanding the state into traditionally neglected areas of the
country. But many sensitive details being worked out during around-the-clock
sessions in recent days remain unknown and the joint statement read by the
talks' Cuban and Norwegian sponsors was intended more to celebrate the
conclusion of talks than offer new insights.
Negotiations
began in November 2012 and were plagued by distrust built up during decades of
war propaganda on both sides.
Polls say most
Colombians loathe the rebel group known as the FARC and show no hesitation
labeling them "narco-terrorists" for their heavy involvement in
Colombia's cocaine trade, an association for which members of the group's top
leadership have been indicted in the U.S. Meanwhile, the FARC held onto a Cold
War view of Colombia's political and economic establishment as
"oligarchs" at the service of the U.S.
The rebel army
was forced to the negotiating table after a decade of heavy battlefield losses
that saw a succession of top rebel commanders killed by the U.S.-backed
military and the its ranks thinned by half to the current 7,000 troops.
Santos, an unlikely
peacemaker given his role as architect of the military offensive, throughout
maintained a steady pulse even as he was labeled a traitor by his conservative
former allies and suffered a plunge in approval ratings.
The most
contentious breakthrough came in September when the president traveled to
Havana to lay out with FARC commander Rodrigo Londono a framework for
investigating atrocities, punishing guerrillas for involvement in those abuses
and offering compensation to victims.
Opponents of
Santos and some human rights groups harshly criticized a key part of that deal:
guerrillas who confess their crimes won't spend any time in prison and will
instead be allowed to serve out reduced sentences of no more than eight years
helping rebuild communities hit by the conflict.
Another toad
to swallow, as Santos calls the concessions he's had to make, will be the sight
of former rebel leaders occupying seats in congress specially reserved for the
FARC's still unnamed political movement. The exact number of such seats was
among the last details being hammered out in marathon 18-hour sessions taking
place in recent days.
"We
haven't slept but it was worth the effort," said Sen. Roy Barreras, among
political reinforcements sent in by Santos to work on the deal, speaking to
Caracol Radio from Havana.
The
announcement that talks have successfully concluded trigger a series of events,
some entailing political risks.
First, Santos
must present the accords to congress and ask it to set a date for a plebiscite
that could take place as early as next month. Details were expected when he
addressed the nation in a televised appearance later Wednesday night. Polls
show Colombians would likely endorse any deal in a simple yes or no vote.
But the
still-unknown final accord may contain surprises and the opposition is likely
to try to convert the vote into a referendum on Santos, whose approval rating
plummeted to 21 percent in May according to a Gallup poll, the lowest since he
took office in 2010.
Low voter
turnout is also a concern because a minimum of 13 percent of the electorate, or
about 4.4 million voters, must vote in favor for the accord to be ratified.
After the
agreement is signed, the FARC will begin mobilizing its troops to 31 zones
scattered across the country, and 90 days later they are supposed to begin
handing their weapons over to United Nations-sponsored monitors.
But don't
expect any immediate peace dividend or security improvements in Colombia's
blood-splattered countryside.
Over the last
13 months, since the FARC declared a unilateral cease-fire and the government
reciprocated with a truce of its own in all but name, violence has fallen to the
lowest level since the FARC was created 52 years ago by outlaw peasant groups
joined by communist activists. Only four deaths attributed to the FARC have
been reported during that period and in the last 68 days the group hasn't
carried out a single offensive action, according to a report last week by the
Bogota-based Conflict Analysis Resource Center.
Analysts are
concerned that as the rebels integrate into Colombian society, well-organized
criminal gangs will fill the void and fight among themselves for control of the
lucrative cocaine trade that kept the FARC well-armed much longer than other
Latin American insurgencies.
While
Colombia's homicide rate has fallen sharply over the years, it remains among
the world's deadliest countries, with violence driven largely by its status as
the world's top supplier of cocaine.
The
much-smaller National Liberation Army will also remain active, although it's
pursuing a peace deal of its own.
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