With 11 days to go before the U.S. presidential election, Democratic
nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 15 percentage points
among early voters
surveyed in the past two weeks, according to the
Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.
Though data is not available for all early voting states, Clinton enjoys
an edge in swing states such as Ohio and Arizona and in Republican Party
strongholds such as Georgia and Texas.
An estimated 19 million Americans have voted so far in the election,
according to the University of Florida’s United States Election Project,
accounting for as much as 20 percent of the electorate.
Overall, Clinton remained on track to win a majority of votes in the
Electoral College, the Reuters/Ipsos survey showed.
Having so many ballots locked down before the Nov. 8 election is good
news for the Clinton campaign. On Friday, the Federal Bureau of Investigation
announced that it is examining newly discovered emails belonging to Clinton’s
close aide, Huma Abedin. Those emails were found on a computer belonging to
Anthony Weiner, Abedin’s estranged husband, during an unrelated investigation
into illicit messages he is alleged to have sent to a teenage girl. The
Reuters/Ipsos survey was conducted before the news emerged Friday afternoon.
It remains unclear whether the FBI inquiry will upset the balance in the
race. The bureau disclosed nothing about the Abedin emails, including whether
any of the messages were sent by or to Clinton. Over the summer, the FBI said
it was closing its investigation into Clinton’s use of a private email system
while secretary of state. Until Friday, her campaign seemed to have weathered
the initial FBI email probe.
Clinton has held a lead averaging four to seven percentage points in
polls in recent weeks as the Trump campaign wrestled with accusations by women
of groping and other sexual advances. Trump has said none of the accusations
are true. He also struggled in the recent presidential debates and faced
questions about his taxes.
As of Thursday, Clinton’s odds of receiving the 270 Electoral College
votes needed to win the presidency remained at greater than 95 percent,
according to State of the Nation polling results released Saturday. The project
estimated she would win by 320 votes to 218, with 278 votes solidly for the
Democrat.
Clinton’s lead among early voters is similar to the lead enjoyed by
President Barack Obama over Republican Mitt Romney at this point of the 2012
race, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken at the time. Obama won the
election by 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206.
But even before the latest email news, it had been a difficult week for
Clinton. News coverage of Trump’s accusers had diminished, while Clinton
confronted the almost daily release by WikiLeaks of emails purportedly hacked
from her campaign manager’s account. This week’s leaked messages raised
questions about former President Bill Clinton’s finances.
And her lead in the States of the Nation project fell slightly from last
week. Though the projected Electoral College votes hardly moved, the number of
states solidly for Clinton slid from 25 to 20 this week. Trump didn’t see any
additional states tilt solidly to him, but he did see some gains: The swing
states of Pennsylvania, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada all moved from leaning to
Clinton to being too close to call.
Still, Trump’s path to a victory is narrow, and any realistic chance
rests on his winning Ohio, North Carolina and Florida. As of Thursday, Ohio
remained a toss-up. Florida and North Carolina were still tilting toward
Clinton, according to the States of the Nation results.
Early voting data for Florida and North Carolina was not yet available
this week. In Ohio, Clinton led Trump by double digits among early voters. The
project’s broader polling suggests the state is deadlocked between the two
candidates.
In Arizona, Clinton also was solidly ahead among early voters. In the
past month, Arizona has gradually moved from a solid Trump state to a marginal
Clinton state, although it is still too close to call, according to the project
results.
In Georgia, she enjoyed a similar lead among early voters. Overall,
Georgia leans to Trump, but his lead narrowed to five percentage points this
week, down from eights points last week and 13 points a month ago.
Even in Texas, where Trump enjoys a sizable lead, Clinton has a
double-digit edge among early voters, according to project results.
The States of the Nation project is a survey of about 15,000 people every
week in all 50 states plus Washington D.C. State by state results are available
by visiting here
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