The raucous,
passionate and unpredictable 2016 U.S. presidential election is on track to
notch another distinction: the most wagered-upon political event ever.
With many
opinion polls showing a tight race just one day before Tuesday's election,
record numbers of bettors are pouring millions into online platforms from
Ireland to Iowa in the hope of capturing a financial windfall from a victory by
Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
UK-based
internet betting exchange Betfair said on Sunday its "Next President"
market
was set to become the most traded it had ever seen and expected to
surpass even Brexit, the contentious UK referendum to leave the European Union.
By Sunday,
roughly $130 million had been traded on who will become the next U.S.
president, compared with $159 million on the Brexit referendum, Betfair spokeswoman
Naomi Totten said. The amount bet so far on the 2016 contest dwarfs the roughly
$50 million laid on the 2012 race.
"We
think it is because (of) how raw the Brexit (vote) is in people's minds -
they're not convinced yet that it's a done deal," Totten said.
Most polls
leading into Britain's June 23 referendum predicted Britons would choose to
remain in the EU. Instead, they voted to leave by a 52 percent to 48 percent
margin.
Betfair's
"Next President" market was by far the largest of more than 70
markets on the site related to the U.S. election. As of Friday, some $140
million has been put into play on markets ranging from who will win the popular
vote to how many states each party will carry.
On Ireland's
Paddy Power, which merged with Betfair earlier this year, the U.S. presidential
election "is definitely on course to be the biggest political event,"
said spokesman Féilim Mac An Iomaire. The site has had about $4.38 million bet
on the race so far.
For Paddy
Power, sporting events remain the site's "bread and butter," with
politics more of a "niche market," Mac An Iomaire said. Nonetheless,
he expects the 2016 race to be among the top 10-most-traded events on the site.
Even people
with no knowledge of politics know who Trump is, said Mac An Iomaire said,
explaining the runaway popularity of the U.S. election in betting markets.
"Trump is such a huge celebrity."
Ladbrokes, a
UK-based gambling company, said about 5 million pounds, or a little over $6
million, had been bet on the 2016 presidential election since its markets on
the race opened four years ago. A Ladbrokes spokesman said that amount was
"at least double" the amount wagered on the 2012 election.
The three
sites all reported an 83 percent probability of a Clinton victory on Tuesday.
Her probability shot up a few percentage points on Sunday after the FBI stood
by its earlier recommendation that no criminal charges were warranted against
Clinton in her use of a private email server.
BACK IN THE
USA
The vast
majority of big-dollar political betting occurs outside America. Wagering on
elections in the United States is limited by law to relatively small trading
platforms connected to universities, which use data from the markets for
academic research.
Still, the
sites are abuzz with activity as the election nears, albeit in small amounts.
On
PredictIt, launched in 2014 and jointly run by Victoria University in
Wellington, New Zealand, and Washington, D.C.-based political consulting firm
Aristotle International Inc, the five most-active markets all related to the
presidential election.
PredictIt is
not legally permitted to disclose the amount of money traded, but its top three
markets have all reached the maximum number of participants.
Trading on
the older Iowa Electronic Markets, launched by the University of Iowa in 1988,
has also been brisk, although a spokeswoman said she could not say if 2016 was
seeing substantially more volume than in 2012, when President Barack Obama won
re-election against Republican Mitt Romney.
The latest
Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Clinton with a 5 percentage point lead over Trump in
the national survey - 44 percent to 39 percent - while races in the swing
states of Florida, North Carolina had shifted from Clinton's control to being
too close to call.
The
PredictIt market gave Clinton an 81 percent probability of winning the White
House. IEM's "Winner Takes All" market showed her with a 71 percent
chance .
'SHE WILL
WIN IN A LANDSLIDE'
Betfair said
on Friday that Trump was emerging as the clear favorite among one group of
players in particular - Brexit backers. Two-thirds of its customers who had
supported a Brexit outcome were also backing Trump on Betfair.
Paul
Krishnamurty, a professional gambler for 15 years who works as an analyst at
Betfair and a columnist at Politico, is not one of them. He told Reuters he
stood to lose $28,000 if Trump wins on Tuesday.
Krishnamurty,
who said he had earned roughly half a million dollars during his betting
career, has laid money on several election-related markets this year. He took a
winning position on Trump's selection of Indiana Governor Mike Pence as his
running mate and bet against Jeb Bush during the Republican nominating
contests.
He said he
believed Clinton would likely to win both North Carolina and Florida and that a
Trump victory was unlikely.
"I
personally believe she will win in a landslide," Krishnamurty said.
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