Japan's
industrial output was expected to show little change in October, a Reuters poll
found, suggesting uninspiring domestic and external demand hampered a steady
recovery in production.
Industrial
production was seen likely to slip 0.1 percent in October from the previous
month, the Reuters poll of 20 analysts showed, after a 0.6 percent rise in
September and a 1.3 percent growth in August.
"Compared
with last year and around early this year, the trend of factory output has
recovered," said Toru Suehiro, senior market economist at Mizuho
Securities.
"But it
has not returned to a steady recovery path due to sluggish domestic and
external demand."
Analysts say
production in sectors such as transport equipment and electronic parts and
devices likely stayed solid, but weak exports probably undermined sectors like
business- oriented machinery.
The trade
ministry will release factory output at 8:50 a.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 30 (2350
GMT, Nov. 29).
The poll found
the pace of decline in retail sales and household spending was likely to slow
in October but both indicators were nonetheless expected to fall for an eight
straight month.
Retail sales
were seen falling 1.2 percent in October from a year earlier and household
spending likely slipped an annual 0.6 percent, according to the poll.
"Private
consumption stayed sluggish but it seems to have hit the bottom and it is in
the phase of whether it will return to a moderate recovery," said Takeshi
Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
The poll found
the unemployment rate would be steady at 3.0 percent in October and the
jobs-to-applicants ratio was likely to improve to 1.39, which would be the
highest since August 1991 when the ratio was at 1.40.
The internal
affairs ministry will issue household spending and jobs-related data at 8:30
a.m. on Tuesday and the trade ministry will announce retail sales at 8:50 a.m.
on the same day.
Japan's
economy, the world's third-largest, expanded for a third straight quarter in
July-September, but weak domestic activity cast doubt on hopes for a
sustainable economic recovery.
The BOJ
switched its policy target to controlling interest rates from the pace of money
printing in September, but any effect of that change is not expected to show up
in next week's data.
Reuters
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