Combining
public bluster with behind-the-scenes diplomacy, China wrested a concession
from the United States as the two presidents spoke for the first time this
week, but Beijing may not be able to derive much comfort from the win on U.S.
policy toward Taiwan.
Several areas
of disagreement between the superpowers, including currency, trade, the South
China Sea and North Korea, were not mentioned in public statements on
Thursday's telephone conversation between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald
Trump. In getting Trump to change course on the "one China" policy,
Beijing may have overplayed its hand.
Trump had
upset Beijing before he took office by taking a call from Taiwan President Tsai
Ing-wen, then casting doubt on the "one China" policy, under which
Washington acknowledges the Chinese position that there is only one China and
Taiwan is part of it.
Trump changed
tack and agreed to honor the "one China" policy during the call,
prompting jubilation in China. Beijing had been working on diplomatic ways to
engage Trump's team and largely blaming Taiwan for stirring things up.
[nL4N1FV21K]
Laying the
foundation for that call had been the low-key engagement of China's former
ambassador to Washington and top diplomat, the urbane and fluent
English-speaking Yang Jiechi, with Trump's national security adviser Michael
Flynn.
"China
was pragmatic and patient. It made every effort to smooth out the relationship,
and it paid off," said Jia Qingguo, dean of the School of International
Studies at Peking University, who has advised the government on foreign policy.
But China also
made very clear Taiwan was not up for negotiation, unleashing state media to
threaten war and punishment for U.S. firms if that bottom line was breached.
China has long
described self-ruled Taiwan, claimed by Beijing as its sacred territory, as the
most sensitive issue in Sino-U.S. relations.
Its military
had become alarmed after the Trump-Tsai call and was considering strong
measures to prevent the island from moving toward independence, sources with
ties to senior military officers told Reuters in December. [nL4N1ES0VR]
A source
familiar with China's thinking on relations with the United States, speaking to
Reuters last month, said China had actually not been too bothered with Trump's
Taiwan comments before he took office as he was not president then and was only
expressing his personal view.
"If he
continues with this once he becomes president then there's no saying what we'll
do," the source said.
TSAI'S CHILLED
HEART
Despite the
U.S. concession, military tensions remain.
On Saturday,
the overseas edition of the ruling Communist Party's People's Daily placed a
picture on its front page of Chinese warships about to embark on a new round of
drills in the South China Sea, right next to an upbeat commentary about the
Xi-Trump call.
The paper's
WeChat account took a harsher line, saying that with Trump getting back with
the program on "one China", Taiwan had better watch out.
"The
heart of that Madame Tsai on the other side of the Taiwan Strait must at this
moment be chilled to the core," it said.
One senior
Western diplomat said China had been redoubling its efforts to win over the
Vatican, one of a handful of countries to retain official ties with Taiwan.
Taiwan says it
hopes for continued U.S. support, and one ruling Democratic Progressive Party
official told Reuters that the "one China" policy had not affected
previous U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, even as U.S. presidents' commitment to the
island have waxed and waned.
Xi has put
great personal political capital into seeking a solution over Taiwan, an issue
that has festered since 1949 when defeated Nationalist forces fled to the
island after losing the civil war to the Communists. China has never renounced
the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control.
But in its
relations with Washington, the risk for Beijing remains that its diplomatic win
over "one China" will be short lived, as Trump will not want to be
seen as having caved in.
"What
he's shown the Chinese is he's willing to touch the 'third rail' of U.S.-China
relations," said Dean Cheng, China expert at the conservative Heritage
Foundation in Washington.
"Beijing
can't predict what he'll do next – and he's only been in office three weeks.
What is he going to do on trade and other economic issues?"
U.S. officials
said the affirmation of the "one China" policy was an effort to get
the relationship back on track and moving forward. [nL1N1FV1RU]
But Trump's
change of tack may be seen by Beijing as a climbdown, said Tom Rafferty, the
China Regional Manager for the Economist Intelligence Unit.
"Mr Trump
is erratic and will not appreciate the suggestion that he has been weak."
REUTERS
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