Boeing
raised its 20-year industry forecast for passenger and freight plane deliveries
by 4 percent on Tuesday, though executives at the world's biggest airshow in
Paris expect
demand this year to cool from recent red-hot levels.
The U.S.
planemaker continued to rack up orders at the Paris Airshow for a new model of
its best-selling 737 aircraft, which was launched on Monday amid a flurry of
deals.
Leasing firm
Aviation Capital Group (ACG), for example, said it had placed an order for 20
of the new 737 MAX 10 jets, worth a total of $2.5 billion at list prices.
"It is
getting a big endorsement from airlines and that is leading to more lessors
endorsing it too," Ihssane Mounir, Boeing vice president for sales and
marketing, told reporters.
But analysts
expect demand at the June 19-25 event in Paris to fall short of recent years,
and some aviation companies have cut back on staff and hospitality at the show.
Over the
longer term, though, Boeing sees an industry in rude health, forecasting 41,030
plane deliveries worth more than $6 trillion over the next two decades, up from
39,620 in a similar projection a year ago.
Boeing's
projection includes a 5 percent increase in the 20-year forecast for deliveries
of single-aisle aircraft such as the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 families, the
cash cows of the world's two largest aircraft manufacturers.
Boeing now
expects 29,530 deliveries in the medium-haul single-aisle category, which is
popular with low-cost airlines.
Aircraft leasing
company Avolon announced a provisional deal on Tuesday to buy 75 Boeing 737 MAX
8s worth $8.4 billion at list prices and said it would have a "hard
look" at possible orders for the MAX 10.
Airbus,
meanwhile, agreed a provisional $5 billion deal with low-cost carrier Viva Air
Peru for 50 A320 jets, confirming a Reuters report.
AVIATION
SERVICES
Air travel
has been on a sharp uptrend, led by emerging economies as China looks set to
replace North America as the world's biggest transport market in the coming
years.
But China's
economic expansion is slowing, even though it remains above 6 percent a year.
Boeing trimmed its 20-year forecast for average global traffic growth to 4.7
percent from 4.8 percent.
Airbus took
a similar step with its 20-year forecast released earlier this month, though it
raised its projection for total deliveries by 6 percent from last year to
34,899 aircraft.
Boeing's
overall tally is higher partly because it counts aircraft with 90 seats or
more, whereas Airbus starts at 100.
With demand
for new jets cooling, planemakers are seeing greater opportunities in aviation
services.
Boeing
forecast that market could be worth $8.5 trillion over 20 years, growing at an
average 4 percent a year. Airbus launched a digital services platform on
Tuesday, which it said could crunch data to help airlines improve maintenance,
reduce fuel burn and optimize routes.
BIGGER NOT
BETTER?
In a
symbolic change likely to rankle with its European rival, Boeing ditched its
forecast for very large four-engined airplanes such as the Airbus A380 and its
747-8. For the first time, it lumped these models with large two-engined jets
such as the Boeing 777 and the largest Airbus A350.
Boeing has
long argued that the "very large" category is on its way out as
airlines switch to smaller twinjets. Both manufacturers have had to cut output
of four-engined jumbos.
"Frankly,
we look at the demand for really big airplanes and we find it hard to believe
that Airbus will be able to deliver the rest of their A380s in backlog,"
Boeing Marketing Vice-President Randy Tinseth said in a briefing.
Airbus
insists the double-decker A380 has a future due to airport congestion and
predicts 5 percent of aircraft delivered over the next 20 years will be very
large people carriers or freighters, even though it lowered its forecast.
"They
would do that, the 747-8 isn't selling," Airbus sales chief John Leahy
said of Boeing's decision to ditch its separate forecast for the biggest
planes. "We have no intention of sharing that market with them, albeit a
smaller market than we might have thought."
"Traffic
is doubling," he said. "(Boeing's) explanation is we'll fly more
flights. I'm sorry, but you can't do it. You have to have bigger aircraft."
Boeing
predicted demand for 920 cargo planes, down 1 percent from its previous
forecast. Much air cargo nowadays goes in the belly of wide-body passenger
planes rather than freighters.
REUTERS
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