As Kenya’s
general election beckons the race has effectively narrowed down to two horses.
Either, opposition leader Raila Odinga , or incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta will be
Kenya’s president after August 8.
The bid for
State House has attracted eight presidential contenders in total. But in recent
weeks the focus has shifted to Odinga’s National Super Alliance and Kenyatta’s
Jubilee Party, both of which have recently unveiled their manifestos.
While the
manifestos look good on paper, depending on one’s political leaning, they are
unlikely to have a significant impact on how Kenyans will cast their votes. The
majority of the electorate have already decided on their preferred candidate.
Most will vote on the basis of their tribal affiliations. The latest polling by
Infotrak shows that only 8% of Kenyans are undecided on which presidential
aspirant to vote for.
Despite the
fact that party manifestos will not shift voting patterns, they do provide a
policy snapshot of what the parties would prioritise were they to form the next
government.
The fact
that neither the Jubilee Party nor the National Super Alliance manifesto takes
much account of relations between Kenya and its peers in the East African
Community, is noteworthy. And disturbing.
A study of
the two manifestos shows that neither has a coherent plan for regional
integration. This should concern Kenyans, as well as the country’s
neighbours.Relations between Kenya and its neighbours aren’t as they could be.
A few months ago cabinet secretary for foreign affairs Amina Mohamed accused
Kenya’s neighbours of not backing her candidature for the chairmanship of the
African Union commission. Uganda openly disputed the claims, which only served
to bring more attention to the suspicions.
More
concerning are the increasingly unpredictable relations between Kenya and
Tanzania. Even as the campaign heats up a diplomatic row is raging between the
two countries.Tanzania and Kenya are key actors in the EAC integration process.
According to the 2016 Kenya economic report, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda account
for the largest intra-trade volumes within the EAC sub-region.
Therefore,
Tanzania’s protectionist tendencies, which include both tariff and non-tariff
barriers, not only threaten free trade within the community, but also encourage
other states to place their own national interests before those of the union.
Tanzania’s
overt nationalism is likely to stymie the integration process. Thus the need
for Kenya and Tanzania to quietly resolve their differences before they
escalate into an open diplomatic row.
Fractious
regional relations
There have
long been cracks in East Africa’s fledgling union.Since the 2013 general
election that ushered in the Jubilee administration, Kenya’s engagement in the
community has become increasingly low key. The result was the formation of an
informal coalition of the willing, which included Rwanda, Uganda, and Kenya.
It’s goal was the fast-tracking of regional integration through large scale
regional infrastructure projects. These countries came together in reaction to
Tanzania’s lukewarm approach to community affairs. At the time the informal
coalition was formed, Tanzania was under the leadership of President Jakaya
Kikwete.
Following
the election of President John Pombe Magufuli in 2015, Kenya’s engagement with
Tanzania has slackened even further. The cold relations between the two countries
is partially explained by the diplomatic charm offensive that Magufuli launched
to restore Tanzania’s influence in the region. His efforts scuttled the
coalition of the willing and sidelined Kenya within the bloc.
A potent and
noxious mix of competing interests have aggravated the frosty relationship
between Kenya and Tanzania. There is stiff competition between the two
countries to host large scale regional projects. There have also been
disagreements over trade deals.
The standoff
is threatening the integration process because the other community members are
finding that they have to align themselves with either Kenya or Tanzania. This
is getting in the way of joint decision making.
A highlight
of the competing views in the region surfaced during the signing of the
European Union/East African Community economic partnership agreement when Kenya
and Tanzania once again took opposing views.Tanzania has always opposed the
trade deal on the grounds that it was contrary to its national economic interest.
Kenya’s view is that Tanzania wants to scuttle the economic progress of the
east African bloc.
Tensions
fuelled by elections
Differing
points of view between political elites in the region have also contributed to
dampened community relations. Whenever one of the member states goes into an
election, other community leaders will align with either the opposition or the
incumbent. These alignments are usually based on personal relationships rather
than common ideology.
Forming
alignments based on a shared ideology would indicate that the integration
process was on course. More so because the East African Community’s ultimate
objective is to form a political union and a shared ideology would go a long
way to that end. But, instead of staking cross-border political support on
ideology or regional policy frameworks, support continues to be pegged on
personal relationships.
This is
detrimental to the integration process. In 1977, the first East African
Community suffered a similar fate when it collapsed under the burden of
personal differences between leaders in the bloc.
Nevertheless,
the political goodwill of individual elites in community governments cannot be
gainsaid. Politicians will always be at the centre of the policy that governs
the integration process.
It’s on this
basis that I argue for the inclusion of more detailed East African
Community-related policy in the manifestos of Kenya’s main political outfits.
Whoever forms the next government needs to factor in the big matter of
community integration.
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