The Presidency
says it expects a better economic outlook for Nigeria during this second half
of the year. Read a statement released from the presidency below...
The just released GDP figures for the 2016
second quarter by the National Bureau of Statistics while confirming a
temporary decline, has also indicated an hopeful
expectation in the country's
economic trajectory.
Besides the
growth recorded in the agriculture and solid mineral sectors, the Nigerian
economy in response to the policies of the Buhari presidency is also doing
better than what the IMF had estimated with clear indications that the second
half of the year would be even much better.
The Buhari
presidency will continue to work diligently on the economy and engage with all
stakeholders to ensure that beneficial policy initiatives are actively pursued
and the dividends delivered to the Nigerian people.
The following
statement was made by the Special Adviser to the President on Economic Matters,
Dr. Adeyemi Dipeolu on the latest NBS report:
"The just
recently released data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that Gross
Domestic Product declined by -2.06% in the second quarter of 2016 on a
year-on-year basis.
A close look
at the data shows that this outcome was mostly due to a sharp contraction in
the oil sector due to huge losses of crude oil production as a result of
vandalisation and sabotage.
However, the
rest of the Q2 data is beginning to tell a different story. There was growth in
the agricultural and solid minerals sectors which are the areas in which the
Federal Government has placed particular priority.
Agriculture
grew by 4.53% in the second quarter of 2016 as compared with 3.09% in the first
quarter. The metal ores sector showed similar performance with coal mining,
quarrying and other minerals also showing positive growth of over 2.5%. Notably
also, the share of investments in GDP increased to its highest levels since
2010, growing to about 17% of Gross Domestic Product.
The
manufacturing sector though not yet truly out of the woods is beginning to show
signs of recovery while the service sector similarly bears watching.
Nevertheless,
the data already shows a reduction in imports and an increase in local produced
goods and services and this process will be maintained although it will start
off slowly in these initial stages before picking up later.
The inflation
rate remains high but the good news is that the month-on-month rate of increase
has fallen continuously over the past three months.
Unemployment
remains stubbornly high which is usually the case during growth slowdowns and
for reasons of a structural nature.
The picture
that emerges, barring unforeseen shocks, is that the areas given priority by
the Federal Government are beginning to respond with understandable time lags
to policy initiatives. Indeed, as the emphasis on capital expenditure begins to
yield results and the investment/GDP numbers increase, the growth rate of the
Nigerian economy is likely to improve further.
As these trends
continue, the outlook for the rest of the year is that the Nigerian economy
will beat the IMF prediction of -1.8% for the full year 2016.
The IMF had
forecasted a growth of -1.8% for 2016, however the economy is performing better
than the IMF estimates so far. For the half year it stands at -1.23% compared
to an average of -1.80% expected on average by the IMF.
What is more,
it is likely the second half will be better than the first half of 2016. This
is because many of the challenges faced in the first half either no longer
exist or have eased.
Laolu Akande
Senior Special
Assistant-Media & Publicity
August 31,
2016
In the Office
of the Vice President
LIB
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