SEOUL/TOKYO
(Reuters) - Detonating a nuclear-tipped missile over the Pacific Ocean would be
a logical final step by North Korea to prove the success of its weapon
s program
but would be extremely provocative and carry huge risks, arms control experts
said on Friday.
North Korean
Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho suggested leader Kim Jong Un was considering
testing “an unprecedented scale hydrogen bomb” over the Pacific in response to
U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat at the United Nations to “totally destroy”
the country.
“It may mean
North Korea will fire a warhead-tipped (intermediate range) Hwasong-12 or
Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile and blow it up a few hundred
kilometers above the Pacific Ocean,” said Yang Uk, a senior researcher at the
Korea Defence and Security Forum in Seoul.
“They may be
bluffing, but there is a need for them to test their combined missile-bomb
capability. They could have already prepared the plan and are now trying to use
Trump’s remarks as an excuse to make it happen,” said Yang.
Such an
atmospheric test would be the first globally since China detonated a device in
1980, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Tests of
nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles are rarer still. The United States’ only test
of an operational ballistic missile with a live warhead was fired from
submarine far out in the Pacific Ocean in 1962.
China was
widely condemned for a similar test with a missile that exploded over its Lop
Nur test site in the country’s west in 1966.
North
Korea’s six nuclear tests to date have all been underground, the most recent
earlier this month by far its largest.
“We have to
assume they *could* do it, but it is exceedingly provocative,” said Vipin
Narang, an associate professor of political science at Massachusetts Institute
of Technology.
“To put a
live nuclear warhead on a missile that’s only been tested a handful of times,
overflying potentially populated centers. If it... doesn’t go exactly as
planned.... it could be a world changing event.”
North Korea
has fired two ballistic missiles over Japan’s north Hokkaido region in the past
month as part of a series of tests that experts say have illustrated
unexpectedly rapid advances.
“They said
Pacific Ocean, which pretty much means firing a missile over Japan,” said Melissa
Hanham, a senior research associate at the U.S.-based Middlebury Institute of
International Studies at Monterey, California. “They want to shut us all up for
doubting they could build it.”
SERIOUS
FALLOUT
While a
missile would be the most ideal means of delivery, it is also possible to put a
bomb on a ship and detonate on the surface of the ocean or in the sea, the
experts said.
Either way,
the radioactive fallout could be significant, as well as the diplomatic
backlash from around the world. North Korea’s recent missile launches over
Japan especially drew stern rebukes from Tokyo and the international community.
Japan’s
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga called Pyongyang’s remarks and behavior
“completely unacceptable”.
Narang said
a test high enough over the ocean would limit the radioactive fallout but risks
included damage from an electro-magnetic pulse, something Pyongyang has hinted
it might employ on an attack on the United States or its allies.
“If it
doesn’t go exactly as planned and the detonation occurs at a lower altitude we
could see some EMP-like effects for anything in the area. A lot of dead fish
too.”
Pyongyang
has launched dozens of missiles this year as it spurs a program aimed at
mastering a nuclear-tipped missile that can strike the United States, in
addition to its Sept 3 nuclear test.
If Kim’s
threat materializes, it will be a “tipping point” for China, and may prompt
many other countries to demand an “end to the regime,” said David
Albright, founder of the non-profit Institute for Science and
International Security in Washington.
“No one has
tested above ground for decades and the radioactive fallout could be terrifying
to many,” Albright said.
Other
experts said such an atmospheric nuclear test is unlikely for now due to its
substantial technical and diplomatic risks.
Joshua
Pollack, editor of the Washington-based Nonproliferation Review, said it would
be an “end-to-end demo of everything.”
“But I would
be surprised if this were their very next move. They have yet to test an ICBM at
full range into the Pacific,” said Pollack. “That will probably come first.”
For a
graphic on nuclear North Korea, click: here
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